Is Eur/Usd like a bouncing ball ? Yes it is. The price returned above the EMA 200 daily. This only after a year and a month that continued to travel under it.
At this time, however, the very short/short term scenario seems to have changed. With the break and the closure above the daily EMA200, it is very likely that this uptrend continues up to (at least) 50% of the Fibonacci retracement. Around 1.144, this area has been tested but it will be necessary to wait for the retest to proceed. In fact, an upward breach in this point will also make investors give up their short positions in favor of long ones. Those will be maintained until the next resistance zone set at around 1.16 (where the EMA200 weekly periods passes). A rejection will make investors increase the short positions of their portfolios.
For now the fundamental scenario is quite uncertain: on one hand there is the ECB which will continue to devalue the euro as the Eurozone is not yet ready increase the interest rate, but it needs further money injection to stabilize. On the other hand, the Fed also seems to have revised its monetary policy. By now the rate cut by a quarter of a percentage point is practically certain in July. In fact the market is already discounting it with this “collapse” of the euro. According to some analysts this have raised the probability that in 2019 there may be another 2 rates change, one in September and one at the end of the year. This has strongly destabilized the American currency, which in the last few weeks has lost ground against all the other majors.
To conclude Eur/Usd like a bouncing ball and for this reason we recommend opening a long position with a target of 1.144. A trade that partially compensates the other open days ago in the opposite direction. For now, we keep the short trade in the portfolio and add a very short period trade to the target of 1,144.